Ukrainians who fled the war in their country and settled in Poland are positive for Polish economy, the National Development Bank (BGK) of Poland concludes in a study published on 11 March 2025. About 1.5 million Ukrainians live in Poland, with most of them fleeing their native country when Russia launched a full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022. The Ukrainians in Poland are contributing to economic growth.
“According to available research, migration from Ukraine could contribute to the growth of Polish GDP by 0.5 percent to even 2.4 percent annually,” the bank writes in a statement with its publication of the study. “The data shows that migrants from Ukraine pay more into the Polish budget than they receive in social benefits. Estimates indicate that the revenues from taxes and insurance premiums paid by Ukrainian migrants to the Polish budget amount to approximately PLN 15.1 billion, and the benefits paid to them (…) cost approximately PLN 2.8 billion.” These numbers are the equivalent of about EUR 3.6 billion in contributions against EUR 669 million in costs.
5 percent of all workers in Poland is Ukrainian
Ukrainians make up 5 percent of all workers in Poland, and the BGK states that they especially support the industrial and construction sectors, as well as the services and transport sectors. “The influx of migrants from Ukraine largely coincided with a period of good economic conditions and increased labour market needs. This context is of great importance for assessing the entire process. According to available research, migration from Ukraine could contribute to the growth of Polish GDP by 0.5 percent to even 2.4 percent annually. (…) However, migrants are mainly employed in elementary jobs, which is why they still do not use their full potential.”
No influence to increased housing prices
Despite an urban legend, the steep price increase of housing prices that Poland has seen since Covid-19 is not the fault of Ukrainian refugees – at least not on the purchase and selling market. “In reality, only 2.7 percent of real estate purchase transactions in Poland in 2023 were carried out by Ukrainians, and the main factor in the price increase were inflation and changes in the credit market,” Poland’s National Development Bank writes.
Confirms earlier report by the United Nations
The BGK study confirms a study executed by Deloitte Polska on behalf of the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) from 2024, based on data of 2023. | © 2025 Marcel Burger, nordicreporter.com. Featured image: A Ukrainian flag in a demonstration of solidarity with Ukraine in Kraków in April 2022 (Photo by Franek Vetulani (CC))
