Simulated attack by Swedish ground forces. (Photo by Marcel Burger)

If war breaks out between NATO and, let’s say, Russia, vast areas of Sweden will likely be left without a proper defence. This forecast has breathed new life into the commissioning of a territorial army of Swedes too old to serve at the actual frontlines of a future conflict. Somewhat like the once popular 1960s/1970s British TV series “Dad’s Army”, romanticizing the British Home Guard forces in World War 2.

During the Cold War in the past Millennium, Sweden had a relatively well-organized total and territorial defence. But after the economizing that started in the 1990s, much of Sweden’s military strength ebbed away. Sweden joined the NATO military alliance in March this year, which comes with the commitment to put its forces under a joint command in times of war. If that conflict will be with Russia, many of Sweden’s frontline forces will likely be commandeered further east – to strengthen e.g. the Finnish border with Russia.

Cannot protect all key infrastructure

Military analysts predict that the larger area around the capital of Stockholm, and the Swedish west coast around Gothenburg will be defended, but that large parts of the north of Sweden will be mostly empty of military units. Municipalities have some sort of home guard (Hemvärnet), but they are a few hundred at best and cannot protect all key infrastructure such as roads, railways, bridges and power plants. This has given new life to reinstate a territorial (regional) defence, made up of mostly older Swedes that once served as conscripts or pros in the Swedish armed forces.

Threshold defence

So far, there has not been a political decision yet about reinstating the territorial defence structure, but the discussion as such is not new. Long before Sweden joined NATO, it was already addressed. E.g. by Rolf Andersson, Anders Björnsson and Lars-Gunnar Liljestrand in their essay Hela landet skall försvaras, men finns den politiska viljan? (The whole country must be defended, but is there the political will?) published in 2020 by The Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences. It builds on the general assumption that Sweden should be able to defend itself for some time, before it gets help from outside. This is called the Threshold Defence: sort of hold the line at the front door until the cavalry arrives through the back door.

“The doctrine of outside support is the basis of what is known as our threshold defence,” Andersson, Björnson and Liljestrand write. “It is primarily based on high-tech weapons systems with aircraft, missiles and navy which are to deter a foreign state from attacking. If the threshold defence does not hold up, and we are dragged into war, the main idea is that we should get military help from outside. While waiting for that, the defence must hold out for the longest time. The threshold defence can be contrasted with a territorial defence, where the defence is dimensioned and built up for a comprehensive defence of the entire country.”

300,000 active hunters

As part of the discussion ahead of Sweden’s NATO membership, Swedish hunters also joined into the discussion at the beginning of this year. They argued that they – already armed – could be part of this territorial defence. In theory, it could be a sizeable addition, as there are about 300,000 active hunters in Sweden – with about half of them organised in hunting organisations.

Whatever the outcome of the social and political debate is, membership of NATO already means a shift in Swedish military plans for times of war. The way Russia combats Ukraine is for many a sign the Swedes are not up to their task to defend their country, yet. | © 2024 Marcel Burger, nordicreporter.com (text and photo)